For months, the darts pecking order looked set in stone: Luke Littler racing from title to title, leaving rivals in awe, while Luke Humphries — the man long seen as his biggest challenger — struggled for consistency and saw his status as the clear world number two slipping. But just before the European Darts Championship 2026 in Dortmund, the picture has changed. Littler has suffered an unusual run of setbacks, while Humphries has made a powerful return with his first individual major title in 16 months. The world number one remains the benchmark, but his biggest rival appears to be back within striking distance at just the right time — and recent statistics suggest Humphries could upset the odds at the European Championship.
Littler's year had started like a fairy tale. After winning the World Championship at Alexandra Palace, “The Nuke” continued his winning run at the World Masters, beating Humphries 6–5 in sets in a high-quality final. He then claimed the UK Open with an 11–7 victory over James Wade in the final. In June, Littler and Humphries won the World Cup of Darts together, before Littler delivered a dominant display at the World Matchplay in Blackpool, claiming the title with a sensational tournament average of 111.04 and setting a new record. That brought his tally to five major titles, and a historic clean sweep of all ten PDC majors in a single season suddenly seemed more than a far-fetched dream. But the dream ended at the World Series of Darts Finals in Amsterdam, where Littler suffered a surprisingly heavy 10–4 quarter-final defeat to Jonny Clayton, who was outstanding on the doubles. It was his first major loss of the year, but not his last. At the World Grand Prix, the Englishman went out in the opening round, losing 2–1 in sets to Luke Woodhouse. Even at the World Youth Championship, which he surprisingly entered in early October, he failed to reach the final, losing 6–5 to Cameron Crabtree in the semi-finals as the overwhelming favourite.
While Littler dominated for months, Humphries' season was far more uneven. After a painful 5–1 defeat to Gian van Veen in the World Championship quarter-finals, Humphries reached the Masters final and won titles both on the floor and on the European Tour. But “Cool Hand Luke” struggled in the Premier League, sitting seventh after ten nights. He then mounted an impressive recovery, reaching four nightly finals, winning one night and qualifying for the play-offs, where he lost to Littler 11–10 in the deciding leg of the final. He also showed his quality at the World Series summer events, reaching the final in Copenhagen and beating Littler 8–7 in New York soon afterwards. Further Players Championship titles followed, but the consistency he wanted on the major stage remained elusive: he went out to Cameron Menzies in the first round of the World Matchplay, then exited in the last 16 at the World Series of Darts Finals. Doubts about Humphries as a serious title contender grew louder — and his response was swift. At the World Grand Prix in Leicester, he beat Gerwyn Price 6–4 in sets in the final to claim his first individual major title in a year and four months. Just a week later, he continued his run on the European Tour in Basel, with outstanding averages of 114.15 and 111.17 powering him into the final, where Jonny Clayton finally stopped him.
A look at their performances since 17 September, when the World Series of Darts Finals began, shows how closely their form has converged. Littler's three-dart average stands at 94.78, compared with 96.41 for Humphries. On first-nine average, Littler still holds a narrow lead at 102.29 versus 101.79, meaning the 19-year-old continues to apply enormous scoring pressure in the opening stages of legs. But Humphries posts the higher overall three-dart average and the better win rate — 83.33 per cent to Littler's 75.00 per cent. Perhaps most interesting is the doubles: Littler converted 38.19 per cent of his chances over the period, compared with 41.96 per cent for Humphries — a gap of 3.77 percentage points that can prove decisive in a close contest between two world-class players. The figures do not prove Humphries is especially strong under pressure on match darts, but they do show he has been more clinical with his chances of late. Littler still has the ability to overwhelm opponents with his scoring; Humphries is currently combining consistently high standards with reliable finishing — the kind of form needed to match the world number one over longer distances.
Humphries has proved time and again he can trouble his compatriot. Littler leads their head-to-head record 24–15, but the pair have served up several thrilling contests this year. Littler edged the World Masters final 6–5, then won five of their eight meetings in the Premier League regular season, and “The Nuke” took the play-off final by the narrowest of margins, 11–10. Humphries hit back, beating his rival 7–5 in a World Series semi-final, then 8–7 in the final of another event. The most recent meeting listed, the final of the 12th European Tour event, went Littler's way again, 8–6. So Humphries can hardly be called Littler's bogeyman — but he is a rival who can match Littler's pace, produce exceptional averages of his own and beat him when it matters, bringing the experience of numerous major finals and the confidence of a newly crowned major champion. The European Darts Championship draw is not made at random; it is determined by the European Tour Order of Merit, which has placed the two English favourites in opposite halves — Humphries in the top half and Littler in the bottom — so a meeting could only happen in the final. Littler opens against William O'Connor, while Humphries faces his friend Ryan Searle in the first round. Despite his recent defeats, “The Nuke” heads to Dortmund as the sport's undisputed benchmark — but if the 19-year-old shows signs of weakness in Dortmund again, Luke Humphries is likely to be among the last players to let him off the hook.
